The night Watch
This in the history of the Russian financial system did not exist. Central Bank raised its key rate in the night and once at 650 basis points - up to 17 percent per annum. It is clear that if he did this afternoon on Monday the economy would not escape the collapse yesterday. And most to the Bank's Russian political scandal. However, that did not happen on Monday, it is now unfold in the coming days.
The night of 15 December 16 will go down in the history of the Russian financial system. December 16th hour of the night on the site of the Central Bank was reported an unprecedented increase in the key rate from 10.5 to 17 percent. It seems that the Board of Directors of the Central Bank has been a difficult evening: the ruble in the exchange trading heavily sank against the dollar and the euro. The US currency rose once per day by 6.27 rubles (up to 64.45 rubles), the single European - at 6.59 (to 78.87).
As a result, this morning we woke up when not in another country, in a completely different financial reality. Most of those who diligently on the eve of "hammer" currency at the exchange, was asleep. In this sense, the regulator counterattack caught them by surprise. Even if some of the ruble "bears" awake inciting balance Monday's glorious battle - they have still not had the opportunity has credited under the old rates for the next day to move the dollar and euro to new records.
The Bank of Russia justifies this decision, "the need to limit significantly increased in recent devaluation and inflation risks." However, this solution has already generates risks of a different kind - the recession, bankruptcies and rising unemployment.
The more feverish ruble - the lower the stock news is the economy. Over the last year the majority of the population visited first warlords, then - geopolitics. Now it is the turn of the "Economists." But precisely because of this rapid "popularization" impartial and unbiased assessment of the situation in the domestic finances can be left out of the equation. The economy in Russia now becomes a function of politics, or rather of political technologies.
That, however, does not negate the monetization of personnel or other radical decisions taken against the backdrop of the financial "popular hangover." But the number of beneficiaries will be as small as the number of those who make money on the stock exchange "Russian roller coaster" as the rest of the hapless investors with special posters convinced that the coming century Russian history, "more important than the stock market."
Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina is not made to praise. But, to be fair, in its assessment that the pace of 4-5 percent by the fall of the ruble added panic population, it is difficult to doubt. Is that throw one or two percentage points, taking into account the Monday crash, as quoted nabiullinskoe statement was made even last week. Even before the OPEC announced refusal to cut production even at $ 40 per barrel and all domestic "deep economy" rushed to buy foreign currency with a new force.
Simple truth, that the exchange rate - it is a derivative of the oil quotations, no longer repeats just lazy. With the peak in July, the price of black gold has fallen by more than 40 percent. Similarly behaved and the Russian national currency. And the panic of the population has become a reality. Some carried the stock market has recently attracted rubles, others - hard earned. As a result, the latter provided the first very good margins, and allowing creditors to pay, and the loser does not remain. A very "porters shells", at best, remained at his.
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev was probably not entirely accurate in numbers, but in fact not sinned against the truth, when in a recent television interview, recalled the situation 5-6 years ago: "Some of our men ran in the exchangers, of course, to both You can quickly convert rubles into other currencies - dollar, euro. But then there was the strengthening of the ruble, and somewhere about the same 25-30 percent compared to the values that were reached at the peak of the weakening of the ruble in 2009, and those who have shifted their savings into dollars into another currency, just lost money " .
Another thing is that, somehow trying to discourage citizens from foreign games, the Prime Minister said, "A" said "B". Referring to the possible loss of buyers of dollars and euros in the strengthening of the ruble, Medvedev did not in any way assure those who are now losing its weakening. For example, owners of ruble deposits simply lose an impressive part of their savings. A mortgage-holders of foreign currency loans is not so much to their debt management Cabinet worried as well as the solvency of the largest Russian companies.
But what about the business that unpredictable devaluation leaves no chance of any adequate planning and that, in order to minimize the hypothetical losses, forced to install is not "Christmas" price tags or even move to "US dollars"?
When such a path are landlords, restaurant owners, car dealers, retailers and the like, it ceases to be solely the problem of "traders" and becomes the new additional percentage point to the inflation rate. And consumers are looking at a price feast even more money stocking units, whose purchasing power had no opportunity to question.
As a result, trying to break the vicious circle, the central bank is doing what he did last night, - raises the key rate by 6.5 percentage points. The cost of loans to the main bank of the country now stands at 17 per cent per annum. This means that more invoices are not only playing with the currency, but also investments in any business, it is far from the course and exchanges.
If devaluation were some benefits in terms of lower costs of exporters and the revival of production, aimed at import substitution, - the high cost of their loans crosses. And the "contribution" of the Central Bank in the coming recession can hardly be overestimated. But the results of the transition to a floating exchange rate would be much less dire, he has attended as a banking regulator and the government to create mechanisms in order to minimize currency risks of domestic business. Without limiting the very raw "national champions".
The mechanism described above has already begun to unwind. In just one day of public federal bonds have lost 10 percent of its value. A corporate debt securities fell more than 8 percent. "This deterioration of the situation of the ruble debt market may be much harder than the acceleration of devaluation of the ruble," - said Deputy General Director of "Pallada" Alexander Baranov.
So it turns out that last night the Central Bank to choose between bad and worse. On the one hand, there was destructive to the financial panic of the population, on the other - the cessation of economic growth and recession. The Central Bank decided to sacrifice economic development. But if he chose in this situation the best option, we will see in the near future.
Raising key rates will also affect the population. In the near future we will not see interest rates on consumer loans below 30 percent. Unemployment, according to experts, can grow up to the spring 10, and in some areas up to 15 percent. But property prices will fall. A 40 percent rating agencies will almost certainly reduce the country's sovereign rating to "junk". However, respondents' Lentoy.ru "business representatives hope that the key rate to 17 per cent hold for long. And it will be reduced after the fall of the price of oil will stop. The question is, when will it happen?